Asfa Shakeel. ”Converging to the slant: How partisan media shapes ideology and policy preferences.” Job Market Paper.
Is political media still influential in agenda setting and opinion formation? Given the increase in one-sided partisan media, substantial research suggests it has an influence on political attitudes and electoral outcomes. However, we still do not fully understand the mechanisms behind this effect. I posit that when partisan news is available, individuals who derive higher benefits (i.e. are information seeking) or have lower costs (i.e. have matching beliefs) tune in and are treated. The treated population shifts preferences towards the slant of partisan news. Within the treated, matching viewers converge to news slant. To test this, I use the expansion of conservative local news conglomerate Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBG) across the U.S. in 2017. I exploit SBG’s successful entry into 8 DMAs and unsuccessful attempt at 19 DMAs to do a differences-in-differences analysis. I match individuals to their respective DMAs using CES data and find that the treated population shifts to the right in ideology and policy preferences; that within the treated population, Republicans show significant shifts to the right compared to Democrats; and that within Republicans, respondents that are more conservative than SBG shift to the left and respondents that are less conservative shift to the right, converging to news slant. I use these results to highlight the mechanisms behind the effects of partisan media.
Asfa Shakeel & Nazita Lajevardi. ”Negative media coverage and anti-muslim hate.” R&R at American Political Science Review.
What are the offline consequences of negative media coverage about minorities? Past research has linked negative media frames to greater animus and more support for restrictive policies targeting minorities. But, whether coverage is linked to minoritized peoples’ offline experiences remains unknown. We take the case of Muslims, a group overrepresented in the US news media, and whose coverage is overwhelmingly negative. We present findings from two studies: (1) a macro-level study linking the volume and valence of newspaper coverage of Muslims to offline bias incidents across two time periods (2014-2018 and 2023-2024), and (2) a micro-level study featuring a survey of US Muslims. The first study reveals that more Muslim coverage is significantly correlated with more anti-Muslim bias incidents. Negative coverage amplifies this effect. The second finds that Muslims who perceive US media coverage about them to be negative were more likely to report personal offline experiences of discrimination.
Asfa Shakeel. ‘Natives v immigrants: identity and the politics of media reception.’ Working Paper.
There is ample research highlighting the impact of news media on political behaviour, attitudes and ideology. However, we know less about the role of political identity in shaping media framing of news events. More specifically, we do not fully understand whether news medias’ framing of particular events varies by who is involved and affected. In this project, I aim to investigate whether news media frames political issues differently depending on whether they affect natives or immigrants of the exposed population. I use the case of the Freedom Floatilla Madleen, an aid vessel which attempted to reach the Gaza strip in June 2025. Activists on board were intercepted, detained and finally deported by Israeli forces. This journey received heightened coverage in international news from June 1, 2025, when it departed from Sicily, up until June 13, 2025, when news coverage diverted to Israel’s attack on Iran. Of the 12 activists on board, 6 were Europeans native to their countries of origin, and 4 were Europeans immigrant to their countries of origin. In this paper, I compare the volume and sentiment of coverage in countries that had native citizens on board the Floatilla and those that had immigrant citizens on board. I find that news coverage in contexts that had native citizens being affected was more heightened and concerned compared to contexts that had immigrant citizens at risk. I focus in on France, which had a selection of native and immigrant citizens on the Floatilla, and find that the regions the activists came from covered this issue differently based on whether they were native or immigrant. This project is currently underway, and the exact nature and size of the results is yet to be determined. However, this project has important implications how international and Western news media chooses to cover issues happening in, around and affecting the Arab world.
Asfa Shakeel & Rehan Jamil. ”Who speaks, who agrees? Cash transfers and gendered response dynamics in household surveys in rural Pakistan.” Working Paper.
Does receiving government cash transfers reduce the gender gap in survey response rates among women in developing countries? This paper explores this question by examining the effects of Pakistan’s largest social safety net, the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), an unconditional cash transfer program, targeted exclusively at women. We analyse program effects on respondents survey response rates across domains such as political preferences, access to public services, and engagement with the state, comparing men and women in recipient households to those just below the eligibility threshold. We also analyze differences in responses between male and female household members to assess women’s autonomy in expressing independent views. Our findings show that BISP recipients are more likely to respond to survey questions than non-recipients, especially on issue areas that directly affect them. Women in recipient households also exhibit greater divergence in their responses from male counterparts, indicating increased autonomy in responses. These results indicate that cash transfers can increase women’s autonomy in survey participation, even in highly patriarchal settings where women often defer to male household members’ opinions. This study contributes to research on reducing gender gaps in household survey data and highlights how social policies can also influence women’s agency in expressing their policy preferences.
Giulia Ferrari, Khadija Islam Tisha, Andra Fry, Halima Akter Prova, Towhida Nasrin, Asfa Shakeel, Shehrin Shaila Mahmood. Benefits and costs of preventing child marriage in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review of literature. PROSPERO 2025 CRD420251040070. Available from https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD420251040070.
Approximately 650 million girls and women alive today married before their 18th birthday. One in three girls in developing countries is married before the age of 18; one in five girls is married before the age of 15. Studies have demonstrated the adverse economic, social, and health consequences of forced and early child marriage (FECM) for child brides, their families, and their communities. Several interventions have been implemented globally to prevent FECM. This study aims to review the available evidence on the costs and benefits of such efforts in low- and middle-income countries. Eligible studies include randomized and non-randomized trials, quasi-experimental designs, and economic evaluations targeting adolescent girls or adult women who received prevention interventions as adolescents. Interventions include community awareness campaigns, social norm change programs, economic incentives, and legal or policy measures. Outcomes of interest include cost per FECM case averted, cost per DALY or QALY averted, and cost-benefit analyses of averting FECM, including broader economic and health impacts. Data was extracted systematically, with risk of bias assessed using ECOBIAS. Findings were synthesized narratively or via meta-analysis where appropriate, informing policy and investment decisions to prevent FECM.
Rationale for the review
Approximately 650 million girls and women alive today married before their 18th birthday. One in three girls in developing countries is married before the age of 18; one in five girls is married before the age of 15. Studies have demonstrated the adverse economic, social, and health consequences of forced and early child marriage (FECM) for child brides, their families, and their communities. Several interventions have been implemented globally to prevent FECM. This study aims to review the available evidence on the costs and benefits of such efforts in low- and middle-income countries.
Review Objectives
Objective 1: Is preventing FECM cost-effective?
Objective 1a: What are the costs of preventing FECM?
Objective 1b: What negative health and economic consequences does preventing FECM protect girls from?
Objective 2: Are the net benefits of preventing FECM positive?
Eligibility Criteria
Population
Include
– Adolescent girls (10-19)
– Adult women (20+) who were recipients of interventions to prevent FECM as adolescent girls
Intervention(s) or exposure(s)
Include
We acknowledge that we may not be aware of all the interventions to prevent FECM in the literature. Therefore, our search string does not include search criteria to identify specific interventions. Examples of interventions we expect to find and include in this review, if found, are:
– Interventions that increase community awareness of the adverse impact of FECM.
– Interventions that change families’ and communities’ behavior and norms regarding FECM. Interventions that provide economic incentives to the families and/or girls to prevent FECM.
– Legal and regulatory changes are designed to prevent FECM.
Exclude
We do not set strict exclusion criteria for intervention type. However, we would exclude interventions to improve health and socioeconomic outcomes in adult women who were married as children, for example, because the focus of the review is on the prevention of FECM.
Comparator(s) or control(s)
Include
Do nothing; pre-existing interventions; waitlist control.
Study design
Include
Both randomized and nonrandomized study types will be included. Economic studies of cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses, either alongside randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cluster RCTs (cRCTs) or quasi-experimental studies. Costing studies of programmes or policies. Cost of FECM to society.
Exclude
Commentary, Editorial, Letter, Case report, Conference proceedings.
Setting
The scope of the search is global. We endeavor to include interventions delivered in low- and middle-income countries. We will manually screen for geographical scope. Delivery settings will include school-based and community-based social norm change interventions and government policies.
Search strategy
We will develop a search strategy for identifying the relevant literature on benefits and costs of interventions to prevent FECM using a combination of Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), keywords, and text words. An information specialist will guide the finalization of the search strategy.
We will develop separate search strings for each database: Ovid GlobalHealth, Ovid Medline, and EBSCO EconLit. We will also explore relevant studies and reports from Core open access papers, Repec – economics papers, Eldis – Institute of Development Studies, and Google Scholar. We will also screen backward and forward citations from the final set of studies included in the review.
Study selection
Screening and selection of relevant studies will be managed using Rayyan, a web-based software for systematic reviews. We will first deduplicate the searches’ results in EndNote and upload to Rayyan all unique records remaining. Two pairs of researchers will independently screen the titles and abstracts to identify potentially relevant studies for full-text review. Each researcher will look at 60% of the results. We will use the 10% overlap to determine inter-screener reliability. We will then retrieve and review the full text of articles or documents that pass title-abstract screening. We will follow the same process for the full-text review. Any discrepancies between reviewers will be resolved through discussion and consensus; if disagreements persist, a third reviewer will be consulted.
Data extraction
We will develop a data extraction template in Microsoft Excel. The template will be piloted by two reviewers and subsequently finalized by a third reviewer. We will extract the data on all relevant cost and effect categories, intervention and study types, populations, comparators, outcomes, geographical context, and publication details from the eligible studies.
Study risk of bias or quality assessment
Risk of bias will be assessed using the ECOBIAS tool. Each study will be assessed by one reviewer and checked by at least one other reviewer. Additional information will not be sought from study investigators if the required information is unclear or unavailable in the publications/reports.
Outcomes
Main outcomes
– Cost per case of FECM averted
– Cost per DALY averted; cost per QALY averted
– Cost benefits of averting FECM
Additional outcomes
– Total cost of intervention delivery
– Cost per session delivered
– Cost per girl (or other participant) reached
– Number (or percentage) of cases of FECM averted
– Consequences of FECM averted: health consequences include depression or anxiety, age at first pregnancy, and sexual and reproductive health outcomes that typically affect child brides; economic consequences include years of schooling gained and labour market participation.
Strategy for data synthesis
If sufficient comparable quantitative data exists, we will also conduct a meta-analysis. If we do not find sufficient homogeneity, we will write a narrative synthesis exploring cost-effectiveness and cost-benefits as reported by the publications we include.
Papers in Progress
Asfa Shakeel & Florian Foos. ”Progressive media and persuasion on the left.”
Asfa Shakeel & Emelie Karlsson. ”What makes online content credible? A factorial survey experiment.”
Asfa Shakeel & Rehan Jamil. ”Neighbourly Politics: The Impact of Migrant Social Networks on Political Attitudes amongst Young British Pakistanis.”